September Rebar Outlook / Trade Case News Reply

The final determinations were issued on the trade cases against Turkey and Mexico this afternoon. The result of these determinations closely mirrored the preliminary rulings. Mexico was assessed duties ranging from 20.58% to 66.70% while Turkey was assessed a minimal duty of 0% – 1.25%. The likely result is that Mexico will continue to be unable to sell its product in the US while Turkey was able to “dodge the bullet” and will likely remain a major exporter to the states.

There may be short-term holes in import inventories as a result of the recent absence of new offers pending this announcement. New offering will begin this week only for 4th quarter arrivals. Domestics will likely still try to seek some sort of a smaller bump on the back of a very strong order book further proving the import and domestic markets seem to be operating independently recently.

Iranian Long Steel Market Analysis Reply

 Iran was the biggest producer of crude steel in the Middle East in 2013, according to the World Steel Association’s latest press release.Iran produced 15.4 million tons of crude steel in 2013,  6.6 percent rise compared to 2012.  This year, ıts been planning, 16.5 million tons of crude steel will be produced even there is a annual crude steel capacity of 24 million ton.  

    If we look at current Iranian local  market situation , domestic scrap prices are %8 VAT included  between 380-390$/mt exworks.  Local billet prices are %8 VAT included  520$/mt exworks. However market demand is weak because of the goverment’s low budget arrangements for constructional projects.  In addıtıon to that, raw materıal prices are too hıgh for Iranıan producers.  They were mostly purchasing  DRI and ıron ore from China, however after Chına started to ımpose %25 export tariff, that caused pressure on Iranıan steel producers.  Local rebar offers are approxiametly %8 VAT included  580$/mt exworks.

    In export market, Iranian billet offers are like 514$/mt FOB however, producers maınly use semı-fınıshed products  for their own steel productıon.  Their rebar export prices for 16-25 mm is as 560$/mt FOB that Iranian maın rebar export markets are Afganistan,Turkmenıstan..etc.  Turkısh billet producers are also offering 530-540$/mt FOB to that region,  however ıts somehow hard to sell Iran  because of higher offers of Turkey ın contrast local offers and Iranian steel capacity enhancement on steel.

 

Scrap / Rebar Update Reply

12 May 2014

I was just finishing up below my comments then late last week domestic mills announced a $20/Ton increase on rebar effective June 2nd. The move was not immediately followed by all manufacturers so it is uncertain if it will “stick”. It does, however suggest that mills are bullish on their current pricing in the face of the below mentioned soft import pricing and lagging scrap.

Chicago shredded scrap posted down $15/Ton at $383/Ton from $398/Ton. Several other markets have yet to post but all indications they will be down the same $10-$20/Ton range. This decline was expected as there is currently a surplus of scrap in the yards, demand in the US for scrap is moderate at best and export activity of scrap is very weak at the moment. The trend may continue the next 30-60 days.

Despite this fact, domestic mills remain bullish holding firm on price and in some cases even trying to raise prices in certain regions and customers effective May 1st. These increases have been silent thus far but rumors of a public increase announcement later this month are also around. While shipments from mills are slowly improving with the season and weather conditions, they would need to continue to do so in order for any type of formal industry-wide increase to stick.

On the import front, lack of Mexican imports from the recent trade case announcements will help the domestic demand somewhat especially in those regions hit hardest by rail shipments across the southern border. Turkish imports remain the key driver of the import number which has not moved much as of lately. Turkey has poor demand in most other countries around the world, including their own, and looks to sell their tons in the US. A strong demand in the US this summer will be required to hold that number in check. Even with a solid demand for imports, the pricing gap between imports and domestic is very high relative to recent history.

 

Rob Hanes

Sales Merchant at Adelphia Metals

March Scrap / Rebar Comments Reply

The Chicago Shredded Scrap finally posted down $20/ton from the prior month at $388/ton ending a long month of uncertainty and severe shifts in overall market sentiment. At one point in the last month, it looked as if scrap would “fall off the cliff” as mills were buying virtually nothing and demand in the market was non-existent. Then without notice, in the last week, the market reversed course stabilized and in several areas and grades even improved to reach where it finally settled. Much like the month prior, while there was not much demand for scrap, there also was no much supply due to the frigid winter causing collection problems.
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Update to the Start of February – Rebar Market Comments & Scrap Trend Reply

February scrap numbers for Chicago finalized this week off $30/ton to settle at $408/Ton down from $438/Ton in January. Despite record cold temperatures taking their toll on scrap collections, poor demand from the mills on the buy side was enough to force downward pressure in recent weeks on the price. This downward trend has been felt the last 7-10 days and was a large contributor to the recent repeal of the domestic mills scheduled $20/Ton hike for Feb 1st.

Because the scrap decrease is larger than the $20/Ton concession by the mills, and the near term outlook for scrap does a little bit but not fare much better, expect continued pressure on the mills to further cut into their recent increases. Mills are hoping the cold snap which is gripping the country finally breaks and an increase in demand will thwart the downward pressure. More…

Start of February- Rebar Market Comments & Scrap Trend Reply

As January came to a close, the rebar market had seemed to cool. It may be the unprecedented cold in certain regions, coupled by the relatively slow part of the season. Or it may be the “numbness” buyers have felt enduring 4 domestic mill price increases in the last 2 ½ months. Whatever the reason, January shipments seemed to be off relative to the rather robust confidence that the market has going into 2014. Domestic mills were seeking their 5th increase, an increase of $20/Ton, going into effect with shipments next week. However, late Friday night, mills started sending out letter rescinding this increase. Mills originally claimed a robust order book would allow them to “catch-up” with recent scrap increases. However, buyers are quick to point out that scrap had softened $10-$20 the second half of this month. Scrap looks possibly like it may give back the $23/ton it went up last month. That number is expected to finalize this week. The domestic letter that was sent out noted “This change is occurring due to a surge in imports from Turkey, Mexico and other countries.” That is true but also think the current scrap trend also helped make this decision easy for them. More…

Turkish Steel Exporters Association adresses US steel industry 1

ekinci

Esteemed members of the steel industry,

I would like to start by giving you some information about the Turkish steel industry. The Turkish Steel Exporters Association has over 700 member companies that are both exporters and producer-exporters. The primary goal of our Association is to increase our export potential and achieve sustainable competitiveness on a global scale with free and fair business practices according to the World Trade Organization’s rules. More…

Rebar prices continue to rise Reply

05.12.2013

A few of the major rebar producer moved up their rebar prices from their mills up $10/ton effectively immediately with orders not on the books. All existing orders will be protected until the end of the month. The two major players in the domestic industry have pushed up pricing $30/ton since mid-October now. I wish I could say the worst is over but this is still just the beginning of this expected rise as more increases are in store in the coming months it appears. The rebar market remains strong as we head into winter. The strategy seems to be more clear at this point. With tight order books, domestic mills are holding off ramping up production in a big way and using the strength in demand to do systematic price increases. The increases add 1-2% to the bottom line but seem to be sliding through and being accepted by most customers. Expect that trend to continue as the mills continue remain tight going into next year. As scrap has not finalized, once again mills have departed from using scrap to determine the direction of rebar pricing, although scrap appears to be side-ways to up for December. More…

1st Assofermet Day & SteelOrbis Conference held in Brescia 1

The 1st Assofermet Day & SteelOrbis Conference was held with great success on Friday, November 15, at Villa Fenaroli Palace Hotel in Rezzato in Brescia in northern Italy.

Assofermet&SteelOrbis

The 1st Assofermet Day & Conference SteelOrbis included the attendance of a total of 211 registered and 202 accredited participants, with 150 participants at the meetings held in the morning and 167 in the afternoon.

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Environment protection forces steel industry to cut capacity Reply

Northern China have been suffering from smog weather this year, arousing government’s attention to environment protection issue. Thus, governments have issued notice to curbing environment pollution by emissions of vehicles and heavy-polluted enterprises.   More…